At present, carbon peaking, carbon neutrality actions and the Ukraine crisis have had a profound impact on the existing global energy pattern, accelerating the adjustment of interests, the growth and decline of power and the differentiation of energy producing and consuming countries. The rapid expansion of renewable energy deployment and the impending era of peak oil demand will weaken the exclusive attributes of fossil energy, guide capital flows to low-cost, low-risk upstream oil and gas assets, and push the focus of energy trade from the global oil and gas market to regional power grids. Weaken the status of oil and gas exporting countries, reduce importing countries' dependence on foreign energy, and enhance the competitive advantages of new energy technology developers and key metal mineral resource countries. As the largest importer of fossil energy and investor in renewable energy, China needs to objectively analyze the impact of new trends in the global energy landscape on its own energy supply security and adopt scientific and pragmatic response measures.

The energy transition is usually accompanied by the rise in the status of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy and the weakening of the advantages of fossil energy. As technology continues to advance, the cost of generating electricity from solar and wind energy continues to decline, and the marginal cost of generating electricity after solar and wind power plants are built is almost zero. However, renewable energy sources with high fluctuations in wind and solar power have high requirements on the flexibility, intelligence and interconnection of the power grid to achieve real-time balance between power supply and demand. The focus of energy trade will shift from the global oil and gas market to regional power grids. While energy importing countries will develop renewable energy domestically, they will also connect to the grids of neighboring countries to obtain external power. Cross-border power trade will promote the interconnection of power grids and improve the stability and flexibility of power grids.

Europe is dominated by household energy storage, and the deployment rate of battery energy storage systems for residential solar facilities in Germany has reached 70%, and is still rising. Mandatory installation of residential solar power in new and retrofitted buildings in Europe will also facilitate the use of battery storage systems, integrating storage deployment targets and clean flexibility plans into the upcoming revision of the European National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Ultimately, Europe needs to ensure that local flexibility markets are established so that business models that deploy battery energy storage systems can support the stable operation of the grid. In a very short period of time, residential battery storage systems have established themselves in several major European residential solar markets. In some markets in Europe, battery energy storage systems have essentially become a standard component of residential solar systems. This model should be replicated across Europe. Let European policymakers recognize and follow clear signals from the market that consumers are seeking real control over their energy bills and affordable, reliable, clean electricity supplies – in other words, installing and running their own residential solar power Facility and residential battery energy storage systems.

Large storage capacity is the main installed capacity in China and the United States. About 70% of the installed capacity in the United States and about 95% in China are large storage capacity. Expected to expand rapidly: China’s current energy storage installed capacity stems from the mandatory allocation and storage required by power-side policies. As of October 2022, the cumulative bidding volume of domestic energy storage projects has exceeded 12.1 GW/26.1 GWh, forming a strong support for terminal installations. At the same time, with the domestic power grid Exploration of side energy storage business models Domestic energy storage is expected to achieve greater improvements in profitability. It is expected that by 2025, China's new installed capacity of front-of-meter energy storage will reach 262.3 GWh, and the annual compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be as high as 1902. Due to rigid demand and the implementation of the IRA policy, it is expected that the new installed capacity of front-of-meter energy storage in the United States will reach 190.3GWh by 2025, and the annual compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be as high as 125%. The U.S. market is the largest large storage market in the world, and the profitability of the industrial and commercial energy storage market is higher than that of the domestic market; the growth rate of domestic large storage is likely to exceed expectations and be greater than that of European household storage; according to forecast data provided by Tianfeng, the growth rate of large storage and household storage The growth rate of storage will double, and the growth rate of large storage will be faster. The growth rate of large reserves has doubled in recent years and is likely to far exceed expectations. Domestic wind and solar installed capacity expectations are good, photovoltaics have also exceeded expectations, and lithium prices are gradually falling, which is conducive to large-scale storage. Shared energy storage or independent energy storage will be a very important model for the development of domestic large-scale storage. It can be leased, and can also be used for peak and frequency regulation. Some provinces have capacity compensation or capacity price.

The United States is driven by yields and grows spontaneously based on demand. China is mainly driven by policy. As the price of raw materials in the upstream of photovoltaics continues to fall, the profits of the industrial chain have been redistributed, and at the same time, the demand for downstream photovoltaics has been stimulated, and the supporting energy storage equipment is also expected to receive a boost. The rapid growth in demand has driven the industrial chain's advanced equipment such as batteries, energy storage converters PCS, and integrators to benefit deeply. Energy storage is internally differentiated, and is subdivided into household storage and large-scale storage. The situation faced by large-scale storage is somewhat different from that of household storage. , the market is diversified, and European large-scale storage is expected to explode next year. Due to the strong demand for wind and solar power in China, it is imperative to configure large-scale storage, so the energy storage industry is internally divided.

Basic distribution of energy storage market

In Europe, there is still much room for improvement in the penetration rate of household storage under high electricity prices. The demand in Europe is mainly due to the high cost of household storage under high electricity prices. The cost performance of household storage is highlighted at the investment cost of 0.65 euros/Wh and the residential electricity price of 0.5 euros/Wh. Payback period* is 2 years. As of 2021, Germany, which has the highest photovoltaic distribution and storage penetration rate in Europe, has just exceeded 20%. It is expected that Europe's behind-the-table energy storage installed capacity will reach 64.3 GWh by 2025, and the compound growth rate of behind-the-table energy storage installed capacity from 2021 to 2025 will be Reached 142.8%.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will have a huge impact on the global technology industry and financial markets

One of Silicon Valley Bank's specialties - community solar projects - may still be hit by funding delays.

The independent agency is particularly known for helping community solar projects, leading or participating in the development financing of 62% of such projects in the United States, according to the SVB website. The bank's large footprint, and the reluctance of other companies to step in, puts the timeline for similar future projects at risk as institutions look for alternative financing.

"Other financial institutions will step in, but with these new relationships, other financial institutions will step in," said Kiran Batraju, chief executive of Arcadia Power Inc., a Washington, D.C.-based startup that operates a software platform that registers and manages community solar customers. The proposed project will be put on hold for some time."

So-called community solar programs often allow customers who can't install their own systems to buy or lease solar panels from larger arrays. These developments tend to be smaller than larger grid-scale projects, allowing a variety of individuals, businesses and non-profit organizations to benefit from solar power generation.

SVB is known for efficiently managing the red tape for smaller renewable energy projects that larger companies are reluctant to engage in because the legal and tax work required generates less profit. Silicon Valley Bank's clients include more than 1,550 clients in the areas of climate technology and sustainability, and it has committed $3.2 billion to innovative projects in this area.

China, the European Union, Japan and South Korea and other countries have clearly benefited from the energy transition, and their energy security will be enhanced by the development of renewable energy. China is highly dependent on oil and gas imports, but it has advantages in the manufacturing and technological innovation of renewable energy power generation equipment, and is the world's largest investor in renewable energy. The demand for fossil energy in the European Union, Japan and South Korea has reached its peak, and they are highly dependent on fossil energy imports; they are in a leading position in renewable energy technology. For example, Germany has 31,000 renewable energy projects. India's economic growth potential is huge and it is expected to surpass China to become the market with the fastest growing energy demand in the next decade. Its renewable energy investment growth has accelerated in recent years. However, India faces severe challenges in building power infrastructure, fulfilling its Paris Agreement commitments, and controlling air and water pollution. The United States has achieved energy independence due to shale oil and gas and has become a net exporter of oil and gas, and will benefit from its leading advantages in renewable energy technology innovation fields such as robotics, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles.

Generally speaking, countries with rich resource endowments or technologically advanced renewable energy will gain competitive advantages, and their international influence is expected to rise. There are three main types of these countries: First, countries with great potential for renewable energy development and the ability to export renewable energy power or fuel. Australia's solar and wind energy resources are 75% larger than its coal, gas, oil and uranium resources combined. Chile has abundant solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and ocean energy resources. However, the remote geographical location will pose an obstacle to the export of power resources between the two countries. In fact, some countries are already exporting renewable electricity. Norway exports electricity to neighboring countries and the Netherlands, and has built cables to Germany and the United Kingdom. Brazil also exports hydropower to neighboring countries. The second is a country rich in key mineral resources. Countries such as Bolivia, Argentina, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will have the opportunity to become an important link in the global renewable energy industry chain with their advantages in key mineral resources such as lithium, nickel and cobalt. Third, countries with advanced renewable energy technologies will become beneficiaries of the global energy transition. Competition in renewable energy technologies may lead to technological domination or technological monopoly. Countries or regions that master key energy technologies, such as the United States, the European Union and China, will take the lead, while other countries will become highly dependent on them. However, considering the ubiquity of renewable energy and its strong technological substitutability, countries with advanced renewable energy technologies are unlikely to have the same market dominance that countries rich in oil and gas resources once held. In the future, it is expected that the competition between China and the United States and Western countries over the possession, extraction, refining, processing and application of key minerals will become increasingly intense.

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